Comment Writer Ollie Duke debates how Trump’s return to office will impact UK politics
It’s official: Donald Trump has clinched the U.S. presidency for a historic second term, defying pollsters and pundits alike. Even Allan Lichtman, the so-called ‘Nostradamus’ of presidential elections with his perfect 40-year prediction streak, didn’t see this coming. As Trump returns to the White House, intense debate has already begun over what this means for the UK, especially under its new Labour government led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Starmer and Trump are political opposites, setting up a unique dynamic for UK-U.S. relations. Trump, known for his unconventional diplomacy and ‘America First’ agenda, now faces a UK led by the first Labour government in nearly 15 years. Starmer, promoting a liberal internationalist vision, may face significant challenges navigating Trump’s contrasting priorities.
Starmer and Trump are political opposites, setting up a unique dynamic for UK-U.S. relations
At Prime Minister’s Questions on November 6th, Starmer opened by saying, ‘Can I begin by congratulating President-elect Trump on his historic election victory. As the closest of allies, the UK and U.S. will continue to work together to protect our shared values of freedom and democracy.’ However, Starmer’s team—and Foreign Secretary David Lammy—may have their work cut out for them. Lammy, who has been a vocal critic of Trump in the past, is now tasked with upholding the ‘special relationship.’
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch was quick to highlight this tension at her first PMQs as Conservative Party leader. ‘The Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary met [Trump] in September. Did the Foreign Secretary take that opportunity to apologise for making derogatory and scatological references? If he did not apologise, will the Prime Minister do so now on his behalf?’ Starmer deftly avoided a direct answer, saying he had met with Trump and Lammy weeks earlier for a ‘constructive’ discussion on global issues, deflecting further inquiry.
Lammy has previously called Trump a ‘racist’ and a ‘KKK sympathiser’ on social media. In his first interview since Trump’s victory on The BBC Newscast Podcast, Lammy dismissed his past criticisms as ‘old news,’ emphasising his confidence in finding common ground with the President-elect. Nonetheless, Trump is unlikely to forget these comments, especially given his close alliance with Nigel Farage, his populist ally from across the pond and one of Starmer’s fiercest critics.
Concerns about the future aren’t limited to personal clashes—there are real policy tensions
Concerns about the future aren’t limited to personal clashes—there are real policy tensions. Trump’s proposal of a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a flat 20% tariff on other countries could have serious implications for the global economy, including the UK. The US is currently the UK’s largest export market, accounting for 15.7% of all UK exports in 2023. If implemented, these tariffs could push UK inflation up by 3-4%, with interest rates potentially rising by 2-3% over the next few years. This economic environment would pose a serious challenge to Starmer, who has ambitious plans to drive the highest sustained growth in the G7.
China is another area where Labour and Trump’s administration are likely to clash. Labour has described its stance on China as ‘pragmatic,’ aiming to balance cooperation on issues like climate change with disagreement on other fronts. Trump’s hard-line approach, however, centres on protectionism and a strong adversarial stance. Should Trump pressure allies to take a tougher line against China, the UK may find itself at odds with U.S. policy, further straining the relationship.
Environmental policy also looms large. Trump’s past record on climate change—he once called it a ‘hoax’ and withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement—stands in stark contrast to Starmer’s priorities. Labour has committed the UK to a global leadership role in tackling climate change, and a potential U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could drive the UK to seek new climate allies, possibly strengthening its relationship with Europe.
Trump’s victory undoubtedly has global implications, and as his administration takes shape, the UK will need to adapt its approach
In fact, Trump’s second term could inadvertently bring the UK and Europe closer together. European leaders are already discussing greater defence autonomy, prompted by Trump’s mixed stance on NATO. Should Trump scale back U.S. support, the UK might play a larger role in a European-led defence framework. This alignment could bolster cooperation with Europe on both security and environmental fronts, reshaping the UK’s position on the global stage.
Trump’s return may also shift the dynamics within the G7, where Starmer could find himself as the only left-leaning leader amidst a wave of right-leaning governments. This political reality will challenge Starmer’s diplomatic skills as he works to maintain the UK’s priorities while fostering productive collaboration with his G7 counterparts.
Trump’s victory undoubtedly has global implications, and as his administration takes shape, the UK will need to adapt its approach to navigate an evolving and complex relationship with its closest ally. With Trump’s return, Britain faces both new challenges and opportunities, for now our future remains uncertain.
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