With six Grand Prix remaining in the Formula 1 2024 season, Max Verstappen remains ahead in the World Drivers’ Championship – but by a lead of 52 points ahead of Lando Norris, who is currently enjoying a run of impressive results. With 180 points left to be claimed before the season’s end, Verstappen’s hunt for his fourth consecutive WDC could potentially come down to the wire – in notably similar circumstances to those in which he clinched his first in Abu Dhabi 2021, by just about pipping Lewis Hamilton to the post.

Verstappen’s hunt for his fourth consecutive WDC could potentially come down to the wire

      Another close call in the paddock this year is likely to be the World Constructors’ Championship, in which current champions Red Bull have locked horns with McLaren; the two teams whose representatives on the track happen to be Verstappen and Norris, respectively. McLaren have seen a marked improvement in their performance following upgrades made to the car during this year’s summer break.

      Verstappen was inarguably dominant in the 2023 season and in the first half of 2024 – in the first seven Grand Prix of the current season, he won ten. At one point early on this year, it seemed almost inevitable that Verstappen would cruise to his fourth victory. However, recently his winning tendency has been disrupted by a string of disappointing results: chiefly the absence of any Grand Prix wins since the Spanish Grand Prix in June. McLaren’s Norris was the winner of two of the most recent four races, and his late-season surge in points has framed him as a candidate to compete for the WDC title, potentially down to the championship’s closing laps – nicely setting up another 2021-style photo-finish.

      However, as much as Formula 1 pundits and Netflix producers may salivate at this prospect, in reality there are a lot of variables which would need to play in Norris’ favour if he were to legitimately challenge Verstappen for the WDC at this late stage in the season. The sun is getting low with only half a dozen race weekends remaining before Abu Dhabi, and Norris’ recent successes may be too little, too late to bridge the gap. He would need to maintain a near-spotless record of Sunday wins, sprint race wins and fastest lap bonuses in order to amass the number of points needed to catch up with a stalling Verstappen, to where he outscores Verstappen by six points per weekend on average – even one poor performance from Norris between now and December would be enough to end his hopes this year. Likewise, Norris must rely on Verstappen to continue struggling in the Red Bull for the next six race weekends, which itself cannot be a guarantee. Knowing what we do about the Dutchman, he may well pull something brilliant out of the bag yet.

Norris’ recent successes may be too little, too late to bridge the gap

Even if the stars do not align for Norris in his hopes of snatching the WDC in the championship’s twilight hour, his team McLaren have their sights firmly set on the World Constructors’ Championship after pulling ahead of current champions Red Bull by 42 points. This would be McLaren’s first WCC since 1998. Over at Red Bull, both the WDC and WCC are at stake when they once appeared assured – with one potentially out of their grasp already, the pressure will be fierce on Red Bull to perform in the season’s remaining races.

McLaren are banking on their star driver, their impressive car and their secret weapon in Oscar Piastri, who, in only his second year in Formula 1, has been driving commendably. Indisputably, his admirable performances throughout the second half of the season, in which he has secured podiums and top-five finishes, have helped McLaren to secure their current lead over Red bull in the WCC. Piastri has said publicly that he will help Norris’ championship campaign where appropriate, but that he will not compromise his own racing to do so: ‘I’m not here just to make up the numbers or be funny on the radio,’ he said this week. Thus adds another level of drama to the impending season-closer in Abu Dhabi: the possibility that Norris would have his own teammate to battle, as well as Verstappen.

Perhaps a fitting send-off for a season of surprises would be a finale for the history books. But with six race weekends still to go, nothing can be taken for granted – as either Verstappen or Norris is about to discover.

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