Content Warning: This article makes mention to sexual assault

We all now know that Trump will not be staying in the White House after 20th January, despite his reluctance to accept the result. But what will he do after that? We already know that he may never concede to Biden. In a news conference Trump said ‘who knows’ which administration would be in power in 2021 which is the closest he has ever been to conceding, but later he tried to back track on this. The sitting president has launched legal battles in several states to try and get the Democrat’s victory overturned. He has alleged fraud, but has not given any evidence to support this and it does not seem to have any substance in truth. Trump’s Twitter feed is overwhelmed with warnings of ‘This claim about election fraud is disputed’. The lawsuits are unlikely to get very far, but they could, in an extreme scenario, end up in the Supreme Court. Trump wants the postal votes to not be counted, labelling them ‘illegal’, despite postal voting being a perfectly legal, common and safe way to vote. There will also be recounts in some states; however, these are highly unlikely to change the results. Before the election Trump said that if he lost to Biden he might have to ‘leave the country.’ Although this is a possibility, I think this is unlikely to happen.

His refusal to concede to Biden could go even further. He could choose to incite violence among his supporters to try to forcibly retain his role as President. I think that Trump’s supporters do not believe that Biden has won, and that any legal challenges or recounts that are carried out will result in a Trump victory. Once his voters finally realise that Biden has indeed won and that Trump will be leaving the White House and it is entirely possible that they will take to the streets and protest. This could be extremely dangerous as many of Trump’s supporters own guns. Even if Trump does not incite violence himself, if he stays silent on the issue, rather than calm his supporters, this could result in widespread continued violence. Thousands have already protested in Washington DC, some with guns, helmets and bullet-proof vests. One person was reported as stabbed. This may only get worse. 

He could run again for President in 2024. Mulvaney, Trump’s former chief of staff said, ‘I would absolutely put him on the shortlist of people who are likely to run in 2024.’ Trump is well known for relishing rallies on the campaign trail. He may want to continue that. Whilst he did lose, he does still have a very large base of support with 73.5 million people who voted for him, meaning he could win if he ran again in 2024. He will be 78 in 2024, but Biden is 77, so it is possible that his age will not be an issue. 

He could support one of his children in running for President in 2024. There has been some conjecture that either Donald Trump Jr or Ivanka Trump might run for President. The US does have such political dynasties, for instance the Clintons, Kennedys and Bush family. In any circumstances he is likely to be a very powerful broker even if he does not run himself, which may explain why future Republican hopefuls have been very careful not to alienate him in the aftermath of the election.

He might leave politics behind and go back to the world of business and media. If he did return, there are plenty of challenges to tackle, given how badly the travel and leisure industry has been hit by coronavirus. Forbes estimates his own personal wealth could have taken a Covid-related hit of up to $1 billion. Trump could also return to TV, and it has even been suggested that he might launch his own channel to combat the so-called fake news media.  

At 74, he could certainly retire. All former Presidents receive a pension which was worth $207,800 in 2017. They also receive Secret Service protection for life, health benefits, a travel office and staff expenses. All Presidents have a President’s library, and many former Presidents have signed lucrative book deals, so Trump could also follow this well-trodden path. Or perhaps he could focus on golf, something which has occupied a not insignificant portion of his time in office. However, I think it unlikely that Trump will retire. He loves the limelight too much for that and will be reluctant to leave its glare. 

But all of this may become irrelevant once he loses the immunity from prosecution status that goes with the presidency. There are a series of potential lawsuits against him waiting in the wings, not to mention criminal investigations. He faces allegations of hush-money, an investigation into tax and bank fraud, an investigation into real-estate fraud, emoluments cases, sexual misconduct lawsuits and the Mary Trump lawsuit. 

I do think that Trump could follow any number of paths apart from retiring. He loves attention so any job that enables praise and validation he would be more than happy to do. If he decides to focus on business or media, I do not think he will be able to completely leave politics behind as it has given him a platform of loyal supporters who will do almost anything to see him succeed. However, it may be that the final choice of his next chapter is taken out of his hands. 

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