Comment Writer Cameron Bryan discusses the 2024 Election and the aftermath of Trump’s return to Office
When Donald Trump said in early 2016 that he ‘could … shoot somebody, and [he] wouldn’t lose any voters’, there was little doubt that he wasn’t your typical presidential candidate, but fast forward eight years and few could have predicted that his early comments would be less hyperbolic than ever. While murder may not be on his criminal rap sheet, conspiring to overturn an election, sexual abuse, hush money payments to an adult-film star, as well as two impeachment attempts against him, make up just some of the criminal character of the soon-to-be 47th President. Combined with his erratic and unconventional rhetoric, Trump’s recent electoral victory suggests that the boring politics of yester-year may have been what was truly on the ballot at this election.
It seems that the very concept of status-quo politics was pitted against Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) movement. Just as the Republican party doubled down on their identity as the outsider force of Trump through their embrace of conspiracy theories about the ‘deep state’; so too did the Democratic party cement themselves as the voice of a pre-Trump world. Made up of the expected politicians, the party also managed to become the temporary home for many established Republican voices. From former Vice President Dick Cheney, former representative Liz Cheney and over 200 former Bush, McCain and Romney staffers, it seemed that both parties realigned beyond their traditional ideologies. This was no longer a battle between Republican and Democrat, but between MAGA and ‘politics as usual’. It was a battle that the latter would suffer in drastically.
Trump campaigned on a platform of populism, aligning himself against this idea of the political establishment
Frustrations over the state of the economy blamed on the Biden administration, fears over immigration numbers at the southern border and a generally high distrust for government was the answer to a question that voters had asked four years ago with the election of President Biden: could normal politicians be once again trusted to represent them? Biden’s victory in 2020 was a test run for a return to ‘boring’ politics after four years of Trump and as is evident with the recent result, that test run was unsuccessful. Even Vice President Kamala Harris was unable to change public sentiment after replacing Biden in the race three months prior to the election. Indeed, it’s evident that public resentment was aimed less directly at President Biden himself, but was more widely targeted at the very idea of the political establishment. Thus, when Harris campaigned on a platform of bipartisan support and ‘not going back’, it had the adverse effect of showing a lack of distinction between herself and the political forces that so many Americans felt were out of touch with them.
By contrast, Trump campaigned on a platform of populism, aligning himself against this idea of the political establishment. In doing so he was able to capture a greater proportion of voters, regardless of ideological similarity. This can be seen most shockingly in New York’s 14th district with the unlikely overlap between those voting for Trump at the presidential level while on the same ballot voting for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Although the two candidates share little in the way of political values, both are representative of an anti-establishment fire burning within the hearts of many voters. The same could be seen elsewhere in the US, where Arab American voters felt so betrayed by how the current administration had handled the situation in Gaza, that they saw their only option was to turn to Trump (even though he had put in place the controversial ‘Muslim ban’ just seven years prior). Murmurings of these unlikely overlaps could be seen all the way back in 2016, when a proportion of Bernie Sanders supporters defected to Trump, rather than their more likely ally, Hillary Clinton. While this phenomenon may not be new, it’s evident from Trump’s historic comeback that winning over the undecided voter may be less a game of ideology or actions, and more so one of optics. It’s no longer a question of where you stand on the issues of immigration, healthcare or the economy, but whether you think the solution is to work within the system or tear it all down.
America has voted, and it was the establishment that lost
It’s hard to say whether Trump could shoot someone and not lose any voters and fortunately the situation in the US hasn’t quite gotten to that point just yet. However, what is clear is that if he did so in the name of tearing down the establishment, many voters may think twice before making up their mind. It may be some time before old fashioned politics is seen as ‘cool’ again in the eyes of the electorate. The failure to achieve what many had hoped for through the ‘boring’ politics of the Biden administration after four years of Trump recalls the phrase, once bitten, twice shy. For however long this public sentiment persists, the Democrats would be wise to accept that they must play within the rules of this new game. America has voted, and it was the establishment that lost.
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